Dumping Alt Coins; Buying Puka Nacua

Markets remain jittery. Moves overdone in either direction at the slightest indication of favorable or unfavorable news.

Today, for example.

Retail sales beat to the upside but still wasn't a gangbuster number - up only 1% month over month - yet stocks went parabolic with the Russell and Nasdaq surging almost 3%. I'll bet you that's the biggest spread ever on an unimpressive, overall, retail sales reading versus the actual percentage gain in stocks. It's good news, no doubt. But this feels sorts irrationally exuberant, to borrow the infamous Alan Greenspan line.

Bonds got annihilated. This makes a bit more sense. The big bet in fixed income lately is 25-50 in September. I think we got our verdict today: 25. Rate cuts aren't off the table; huge, intermeeting slash and burn techniques no longer appear to be a thing. This is looking more like the reverse of that slow and steady tightening campaign in the mid 2000s when the Fed predictably and boringly raised rates 19 consecutive times. You could set your watch to it. This is the kind of ennui central bankers love.

I can't figure out crypto. Altcoins are more or less dying. They're all so abandoned and disorganized it's hard to watch. But even the big 4 or 5 - bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether (an anomaly), Binance Coin and Solana - to name the top of the class - cannot find any consistent rhythm, either. Don't shoot me for saying this but I a.) do think the election here matters a great deal for the future of digital assets and b.) I think crypto investors are mostly terrified of a Harris win due to perceived regulatory onslaughts.

Ironically, this hardly makes any sense, mind you. BTC and ETH have fully gone mainstream. Every Wall Street firm now has exposure. Find one that doesn't and you're probably looking at the next acquisition target. The BlackRock's, Fidelity's, Goldman's and Morgan Stanley's are now suited up. If you'd like to bet against those four, be my guest.

Vix at 15. Probably a 12 handle soon. Just remember though: not financial advice. Please DYOR.

With the Olympics over and the Cubs breaking hearts again, it's almost time for America's favorite past time hobby: Fantasy Football. Everyone ready for their drafts yet??