Lollapalooza, The Mideast & Where is all the Laughter?

Oscar Huel
Published Aug 5, 2024

Lollapalooza, The Mideast & Where is all the Laughter?

Grant Park, Chicago. Lollapalooza.

No, I wasn't there, in case you're wondering. My concert days quieted down after I came with an inch of my life at Knebworth in London a lifetime ago. Ask me about it sometime; you'll certainly chuckle.

As we head into the weekend, though - unfortunately - there isn't too much laughter on the global geopolitical front. I don't mean to sound too dire and all. But boy, are the problems piling up fast and almost everywhere.

Where to begin?

In no particular order:

* The Mideast: Has to be the most dangerous point in at least the last 40 years in the region. Ever? There are precipices; brinks; red lines. All have been crossed and crisscrossed. Reportedly POTUS told Mr. Netanyahu to stop stirring the pot. Reading the tea leaves, it sounds like that call ended badly. The Pentagon said this week 4,000 Marines & 12 warships are en route to the region. *****on the worrisome scale

* Japan: Switching gears to finance; Tokyo is in a near death spiral. Their currency is losing tremendous value. The only palliative is to hike interest rates; yet this has caused equites to crater. So, now they're gonna be forced to lower the cost of money. Which will crush their currency all over again and make their ability to pay back debts that much more difficult. Not to be overly dramatic but it's like telling someone: sell me your life preserver so I can give you money for a boat. But the boat has no compass, no motor and you don't know how to swim. And you're lost at sea.

Well, that's a pretty awful analogy. But I think the broader point may be coming into focus: Tokyo doesn't have a ton of options after three decades of binge borrowing. ****on the worrisome factor

* Ukraine, Venezuela and Turkey. Various levels of chaos and uncertainty. Is Ankara an ally or adversary? I think the answer depends on who you ask. Caracas is a state under siege. Kiev is running out of ammo, money and troops at that exact worse time. No bueno. ***on the worrisome ratio (although certainly 10X worse if you're on the ground in 2/3 of those places.)

* The Fed & the election. Wildly up in the air. Although it's becoming clearer by the second what the most omnipotent central bank in the world is about to do: cut interest rates with reckless abandon. As for the vote in November? Who knows. *on the worrisome level (our problems sometimes seem bad - but on a relative basis to the rest of the world are far, far more manageable.)

* Bitcoin: getting walloped like a FAANG tech stock. Problematic if you own it, I suppose, but not deeply enough embedded into the global financial ecosystem to cause any real systemic damage. Still see BTC very much as a long-term hedge to disruption - even though it's not performing at all when you might expect a "risk off" asset to do so. No stars on the worrisome mindset

The Cubs are toying with me. I'm such a sucker; I fall for it every time. USA hoops - men and women - look great. Bears mania into overdrive; in August.

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